2026 Emmy winner predictions: Our picks in the top categories

Joyce EngThu, August 13, 2026 at 1:00 PM UTC

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Matthew Rhys on ‘Widow’s Bay’; Hannah Einbinder on ‘Hacks’; Noah Wyle on ‘The Pitt’; Sarah Snook on ‘All Her Fault’; Rhea Seehorn on ‘Pluribus’Credit: Robert Clark/Apple TV; Warrick Page/MAX; Sarah Enticknap/PEACOCKKey Points -

EW makes winner predictions for the 2026 Emmys.

Final voting begins Aug. 17 and ends Aug. 26.

The Creative Arts Emmys will be held Sept. 5 and 6, with the main ceremony on Sept. 14.

It’s crunch time, Emmy watchers.

Phase 2 is in full swing — and will heat up this weekend at the Television Academy’s second annual Televerse festival — with final Emmy voting kicking off Monday, Aug. 17 and running through Wednesday, Aug. 26, so it’s time for some winner predictions.Some categories are locked and loaded (congrats again, Jean Smart!), but others are very much in flux or a nail-biter. Can Hacks keep Widow’s Bay at, um, bay? Will Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series deliver another Jeff Hiller-esque shocker?A couple of reminders: Voting in Phase 2 remains the same as in Phase 1, with all members eligible to vote in program categories and individual categories limited to branch voting (actors voting in acting, writers voting in writing, directors voting in directing, etc). And last month, five categories were moved from the main Sept. 14 ceremony to the Creative Arts Awards, which will be held (and are not televised live) on Sept. 5 and 6. They are Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series and four categories in the limited field: supporting actor, supporting actress, directing, and writing.

Here are our predictions in the major categories.

Outstanding Drama Series

Sepideh Moafi, Shawn Hatosy, Noah Wyle, and Kristin Villanueva on ‘The Pitt’Credit: Warrick Page/HBO Max

The Diplomat (Netflix)The Gilded Age (HBO)A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms (HBO)Paradise (Hulu)The Pitt (HBO Max)Pluribus (Apple TV)Slow Horses (Apple TV)Your Friends & Neighbors (Apple TV)

Who will win:The PittNo suspense here. The HBO Max medical drama kicked off its awards run here last year with a series victory for its first season and then went on to sweep the top prize at every awards show in the winter. It exploded to a leading 25 nominations this year, 12 more than it received last year. It’ll be the first drama to win for its first two seasons since Mad Men, which won drama series for its first four seasons from 2008-11.

Watch out for: Well, no one, but in terms of nominations, Pluribus is next in line with 18. But the mind-bending thriller is poised to be the Severance to The Pitt this year.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Matthew Rhys on ‘Widow’s Bay’; Jean Smart on ‘Hacks’Credit: Apple TV; Courtesy of HBO Max

Abbott Elementary (ABC)The Bear (FX)Hacks (HBO Max)Margo’s Got Money Troubles (Apple TV)Nobody Wants This (Netflix)Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)Shrinking (Apple TV)Widow’s Bay (Apple TV)

Who will win:Widow’s BayUnlike its drama counterpart, this race could come down to the wire between Hacks and Widow’s Bay. The Creative Arts Awards will offer more clarity, as will the preceding categories on the big night. With a record-setting 25 nominations — the most for a comedy in a single season — Hacks, the 2024 champ, certainly feels like the winner on paper, and a bookend trophy would be a nice and very deserving kickoff for its farewell awards tour. But awards are about vibes as much as they’re about numbers. And the vibes feel like they’re with Widow’s Bay, a late spring entry in the race — its whole first season isn’t even eligible, as three episodes aired after the deadline and will be eligible next year as orphaned episodes — with great word-of-mouth that netted 19 nominations, the most for a new series this year. It’s not unlike last year when The Pitt was the breakthrough new show of the moment that took down the bigger, more nominated, and established show, Severance.

Watch out for:Hacks, duh. It’d be the eighth show to win Outstanding Comedy Series twice, after I Love Lucy, The Jack Benny Show, Get Smart, The Golden Girls, Murphy Brown, Everybody Loves Raymond, and Ted Lasso.

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

Jason Bateman and David Harbour on ‘DTF St. Louis’; Carey Mulligan and Oscar Isaac on ‘Beef’Credit: Tina Rowden/HBO; Courtesy of Netflix

All Her Fault (Peacock)The Beast in Me (Netflix)Beef (Netflix)DTF St. Louis (HBO)Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette (FX)

Who will win:DTF St. LouisBeef won this award for season 1, and while season 2 garnered more nominations (16 to 13), the reception was a tad more polarizing. Plus, there’s that huge snub for Cailee Spaeny. That’s not fatal, but DTF St. Louis was a low-key grower and maxed out with 13 nominations, including five acting.

Watch out for:Beef. The anthology series is the most nominated one in the field and has Netflix visibility. It’d be the third franchise to win the award more than once after Prime Suspect and American Crime Story.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Keri Russell on ‘The Diplomat’; Rhea Seehorn on ‘Pluribus’Credit: Clifton Prescod/Netflix; Apple TV

Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age (HBO)Chase Infiniti, The Testaments (Hulu)Keri Russell, The Diplomat (Netflix)Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus (Apple TV)Zendaya, Euphoria(HBO)

Who will win: Rhea Seehorn, PluribusSeehorn won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award in the winter, losing the Actor Award to Russell. Both Pluribus and The Diplomat pulled acting nominations in addition to ones for their leading ladies, but the former gets the edge here as the hot new show and with 18 nominations to seven.

Watch out for: Russell, of course. The Actor Awards have voter crossover with the Emmys, unlike the Globes and Critics Choice, but The Diplomat is a far more SAG-friendly show than the cerebral Pluribus, which didn’t get an ensemble bid with the guild, unlike The Diplomat. If Russell does pull it off, it’ll be a great night for the Rhyssell household (more on that later). Zendaya is a two-time champ, but the nom is the reward this time for the star who didn’t acknowledge the recognition once during her double blockbuster promo tour blitz this summer.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Noah Wyle on ‘The Pitt’Credit: Warrick Page/HBO Max

Sterling K. Brown, Paradise (Hulu)Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (Apple TV)Mark Ruffalo, Task (HBO)Rufus Sewell, The Diplomat (Netflix)Noah Wyle, The Pitt  (HBO Max)

Who will win: Noah Wyle, The PittNothing to see here, folks. Robby might be the bane of everyone’s existence in The Pitt and on the interwebs, but Wyle’s stellar work, especially in the final two episodes of season 2, sealed the deal for a second win that was already locked. He will be the first person to win this category in consecutive years since Bryan Cranston won three in a row for Breaking Bad from 2008 to 2010.

Watch out for: Uh, let’s say Oldman, who likely would’ve won this in 2024 had Shōgun not moved to drama and whose show has nabbed above-the-line wins the past two years.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Sepideh Moafi and Katherine LaNasa on ‘The Pitt’Credit: Warrick Page/HBO Max

Taylor Dearden, The Pitt (HBO Max)Fiona Dourif, The Pitt (HBO Max)Allison Janney, The Diplomat (Netflix)Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt (HBO Max)Sepideh Moafi, The Pitt (HBO Max)Julianne Nicholson, Paradise (Hulu)Karolina Wydra, Pluribus (Apple TV)

Who will win: Katherine LaNasa, The PittLaNasa defeated four ladies from The White Lotus last year as the sole nominee from The Pitt. She’s joined by three costars this time, but she’s still in pole position as the defending champ and with a riveting storyline involving collecting evidence for a rape kit from a sexual assault victim played by Tina Ivlev, who was also nominated for her guest spot.

Watch out for: Of her costars, Moafi will give LaNasa chase. She gets her best material at the end of the season and in theory is untested against LaNasa as a season 2 addition.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Shawn Hatosy on ‘The Pitt’’; Tom Pelphrey on ‘Task’; Patrick Ball on ‘The Pitt’Credit: Warrick Page/HBO Max; Peter Kramer/HBO; Warrick Page/HBO Max

Patrick Ball, The Pitt (HBO Max)Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (Apple TV)Shawn Hatosy, The Pitt (HBO Max)Gerran Howell, The Pitt (HBO Max)Jack Lowden, Slow Horses (Apple TV)Tom Pelphrey, Task (HBO)Carlos-Manuel Vesga, Pluribus (Apple TV)

Who will win: Tom Pelphrey, TaskIf The Morning Show didn’t capitulate, going from 16 nominations to one, this would be a done-and-dusted third victory for Crudup. Alas, this is one of the most open categories. Hatosy is looking for an upgrade from last year’s guest win, but he, like his nominated costars, could split the vote without having big standout moments in season 2. We’ll go with Pelphrey, who was snubbed in this category six years ago for Ozark (he’d later be nominated in guest). The performance is there, and while Task missed series despite hitting acting, directing, writing, and editing, it’s just actors voting for acting winners, so his nomination already proves voters are paying attention. The last person to win this award without a series nomination? Crudup in 2020.

Watch out for: Hatosy likely would’ve easily repeated in guest actor had he stayed there, so you can’t count him out after the category switch. Some might be so enamored with Dr. Abbot, they’ll check him off anywhere, you know? Also be wary of Lowden, who returned after last year’s snub, and could continue Slow Horses’ streak of a third straight above-the-line win in a third different category.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Jean Smart on ‘Hacks’Credit: Courtesy of HBO Max

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC)Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (FX)Elle Fanning, Margo’s Got Money Troubles (Apple TV)Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback (HBO)Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO Max)

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Who will win: Jean Smart, HacksObviously. She’ll make history as the first woman to win an Emmy for every season of her show that has run for at least three seasons. One man, Bill Cosby, has done it, but I Spy lasted three seasons, so Smart’s impending five-for-five record will be more impressive.

Watch out for: In the distant battle for second, The Comeback stans will go down with the Lisa Kudrow ship, but in reality, it’s probably Brunson, who won three years ago when Smart was ineligible.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Matthew Rhys on ‘Widow’s Bay’Credit: Apple TV

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Wonder Man (Disney +)Steve Carell, Rooster (HBO)Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay (Apple TV)Jason Segel, Shrinking (Apple TV)Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Who will win: Matthew Rhys, Widow’s BayPour one out for Segel and Short because the Emmy was shaping up to be between them before Widow’s Bay entered the chat with its hilarious scares, endless memes, and Rhys’ incredible facial reactions whether he’s tripping on ‘shrooms or trying to escape the sea hag. With his win for The Americans in 2018, he’d join Ed Asner and Edie Falco as the only people to triumph in lead in drama and comedy.

Watch out for: One of the perennial bridesmaids for their shows, Segel or Short, most likely the former since Shrinking out-performed the aging Only Murders in the Building. Carell, on his eighth acting bid and 12th overall, is still seeking his first win, but it’s sadly not gonna come this year.

Check out more from EW’s The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights from the year’s best in TV, movies, and more.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Kate O’Flynn on ‘Widow’s Bay’; Hannah Einbinder on ‘Hacks’; Dale Dickey on ‘Widow’s Bay’Credit: Apple TV; Kenny Laubbacher/HBO Max; Robert Clark/Apple TV

Dale Dickey, Widow’s Bay (Apple TV)Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBO Max)Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (ABC)Kate O’Flynn, Widow’s Bay (Apple TV)Michelle Pfeiffer, Margo’s Got Money Troubles (Apple TV)Megan Stalter, Hacks (HBO Max)Jessica Williams, Shrinking (Apple TV)

Who will win: Kate O’Flynn, Widow’s BayJust like last year, this is another unpredictable race featuring two stars from a freshman Apple TV series that could end in a win for Einbinder. But we’ll tip O’Flynn, who quickly became a fan favorite with two showcase episodes in season 1, proving that Patricia is that (final) girl.

Watch out for: Einbinder could easily go back to back, especially with her tremendous work in the series finale. But also take a flyer on Dickey, who could be the Sheryl Lee Ralph to O’Flynn’s Janelle James: the elder stateswoman who’s worked with everyone, winning on her first nomination over her lesser-known costar in a breakout role.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Stephen Root on ‘Widow’s Bay’; Colman Domingo on ‘The Four Seasons’; Paul W. Downs on ‘Hacks’Credit: Apple TV; Emily V. Aragones/Netflix; Courtesy of HBO Max

Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons (Netflix)Paul W. Downs, Hacks (HBO Max)Harrison Ford, Shrinking (Apple TV)Nick Offerman, Margo’s Got Money Troubles (Apple TV)Stephen Root, Widow’s Bay (Apple TV)Michael Urie, Shrinking (Apple TV)Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary (NBC)

Who will win: Paul W. Downs, HacksThis category delivered a shocker last year, and the field is ripe for another unexpected champ. The consensus pick will be Ford — just like last year — mostly because he’s Harrison Ford, but he feels like a red herring yet again. We’ll roll the dice on Downs, who was nominated two years ago but was snubbed last year. Doesn’t make for a great track record, but every year is a new race, and just because he missed, that doesn’t mean no one voted for him. Megan Stalter finally getting nominated also doesn’t hurt his cause, and neither does their hilarious campaign.

Watch out for: Root, who was rudely only nominated once for Barry, could get swept up in the Widow’s Bay love, but keep an eye out for Domingo, who got in again as a lone nominee for The Four Seasons. He’s beloved and a past guest winner for Euphoria, for which he’s nominated again this year, and these are the perfect conditions for him to add a second statuette (or perhaps third, should he pick up another trophy at the Creative Arts ceremony for the final season of Euphoria).

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Carey Mulligan on ‘Beef’; Sarah Snook on ‘All Her Fault’Credit: Courtesy of Netflix; Sarah Enticknap/PEACOCK

Claire Danes, The Beast in Me (Netflix)Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures (Netflix)Carey Mulligan, Beef (Netflix)Sarah Pidgeon, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette (FX)Sarah Snook, All Her Fault (Peacock)

Who will win: Carey Mulligan, BeefIn Phase 1, it felt like the battle was between Mulligan and Pidgeon, but then Love Story vastly underperformed with nominations — just six total and only two acting, with its leading man, Paul Anthony Kelly, snubbed. (Is it a coincidence only the non-Kennedy performers were nominated? Discuss.) All Her Fault landed Peacock its first narrative series nomination, but this kind of feels like when The Dropout failed to get any actors not named Amanda Seyfried nominated while Pam & Tommy surprised with 10 nominations, including three acting. In the end, Seyfried, the presumptive favorite in the bigger, more acclaimed show, still won out over Lily James.

Watch out for: Snook, who’d check off two of the lead actress Emmy categories following her win for Succession. Field, who won her first of three Emmys in this category 49 years ago for Sybil, is the first nominee from a movie here since 2018 and would be the first winner from a movie since Julianne Moore for Game Change in 2012. The last one before Moore? Danes for Temple Grandin in 2010.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Oscar Isaac on ‘Beef’Credit: Courtesy of Netflix

Riz Ahmed, Bait (Prime Video)Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit (Netflix)Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story (Netflix)Oscar Isaac, Beef (Netflix)Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me (Netflix)

Who will win: Oscar Isaac, BeefThis is the most fluid the category’s been since 2021, when Ewan McGregor pulled out the W for Halston. Remember Halston? Exactly. This is not quite the same situation, and while Beef season 2 didn’t make as big of a splash as season 1, Isaac feels like he can eke this out the same way his costar Mulligan can.

Watch out for: Will voters be that Rhys-pilled that they give him two Emmys in one night, thus making him the first person to sweep all the lead categories? The Beast in Me doesn’t feel like it has enough passion to pull it off, but stranger things have happened.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Linda Cardellini on ‘DTF St. Louis’Credit: Tina Rowden/HBO

Linda Cardellini, DTF St. Louis (HBO)Dakota Fanning, All Her Fault (Peacock)Laurie Metcalf, Monster: The Ed Gein Story (Netflix)Joy Sunday, DTF St. Louis (HBO)Youn Yuh-jung, Beef (Netflix)Constance Zimmer, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette (FX)

Who will win: Linda Cardellini, DTF St. LouisThe pathway for a Cardellini coronation got easier between the major snubs for Cailee Spaeny (Beef) and the Love Story pair of Grace Gummer and Naomi Watts, and DTF St. Louis collecting the most acting nominations among limited series. Sunday is also not gonna siphon that many votes from Cardellini, a TV vet.

Watch out for: Like Cardellini, Zimmer is also a TV vet who’s 10 years removed from her first and heretofore only Emmy nomination, for UnREAL.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

David Harbour on ‘DTF St. Louis’Credit: Tina Rowden/HBO

Jason Bateman, DTF St. Louis (HBO)David Harbour, DTF St. Louis (HBO)Richard Gadd, Half Man (HBO)Richard Jenkins, DTF St. Louis (HBO)Charles Melton, Beef (Netflix)Nick Offerman, Death by Lightning (Netflix)

Who will win: David Harbour, DTF St. LouisBateman and Harbour both comically submitted in supporting (the former to avoid vote-splitting with himself for Black Rabbit) and find themselves here with costar and actual supporting player Jenkins. As the heart of the show, Floyd, Harbour has the upper hand.

Watch out for: Is this a case where Harbour and Bateman are so far ahead, one of them will win? Bateman has four nominations this year between acting, directing, and producing, and he’s only ever won once, for directing Ozark in 2019.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, hosted by Mariska Hargitay, air Monday, Sept. 14 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on NBC and Peacock.

on Entertainment Weekly

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