Trump Could Lower Diesel Prices—but Gas Could Get More Expensive

Diccon HyattMon, September 28, 2026 at 4:05 PM UTC

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Gas prices at a Shell gas station above $6 a gallon for regular gasoline and $8 a gallon for diesel are displayed across from a US flag outside of the Marathon Petroleum Corp. Los Angeles Refinery in Carson, California on September 22, 2026.Credit: Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty ImagesKey Takeaways -

President Donald Trump is reportedly considering banning exports of diesel fuel.

Experts say a diesel ban could reduce diesel prices by 25 cents per gallon each week the export ban remained in effect, while raising gasoline prices by 30 cents per gallon.

Oil and business groups urged Trump not to ban diesel exports.

President Donald Trump has access to a “make diesel cheaper” button, but experts say there are good reasons he might not want to press it.

Record-high diesel prices, driven by wars in Iran and Ukraine, are a major problem for household budgets and the economy. They are threatening to stoke inflation by raising transportation costs for nearly everything consumers buy.

Trump is reportedly considering measures to bring those prices down, including by banning exports of the critical fuel. Analysts predict an export ban would lower diesel prices temporarily while raising them for gasoline and other fuels, and pushing up diesel prices in the long run. The trade-off would be diesel prices falling by 25 cents per gallon each week of the ban, while gasoline prices increasing by 30 cents per gallon, economists at Goldman Sachs estimated.

“We’re thinking about it very seriously,” Trump said Sunday at a golf tournament near Chicago, in response to a question from a FOX News reporter.

Talk of the diesel ban swirled last week, first reported Wednesday by Politico,  which said the White House was preparing for a 90-day export ban.  Later, Energy Secretary Christopher Wright told reporters Trump wasn’t going to ban exports altogether, but told the Wall Street Journal he was considering some other form of restriction.

What This Means For The Economy

An export ban could relieve some of the upward pressure on inflation stemming from record-high diesel prices, but could push up prices in other areas, experts say.

Gasoline prices would rise because of how oil refineries are set up, according to an analysis by Martijn Rats, a commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley.

If diesel exports were banned, the extra fuel would have to be stored, and U.S. refiners would run out of storage space in about three weeks. At that point, they’d have to cut production of both diesel and gasoline.

“This would require higher gasoline imports, from a global market that is already tight,” Rats wrote. “Hence, a diesel export ban could have the counterintuitive effect of an increase in gasoline prices if U.S. refiners cut runs.”

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If the ban were limited in time, diesel prices in the U.S. would rebound after it was lifted and likely be higher than they would have been without the export ban. And it would also push up diesel prices elsewhere in the world.Wright, Trump’s energy secretary, raised similar concerns on Wednesday, speaking at an event hosted by The Economist magazine.

“The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn’t work,” he said, according to the magazine. “That same refinery that produces diesel also produces gasoline and jet fuel, so if you can’t export the diesel that comes out of our refineries, you run out of places to store it, and you have to reduce U.S. refining, which would put upward pressure on gasoline prices and jet-fuel prices.”

Trump acknowledged the potential for higher gas prices in his interview Sunday.“That can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars, so we’re looking at it very seriously—we may do it,” he said.

A slew of business groups, including the Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers, warned Trump against any export restrictions in an open letter. They contended a ban “would lead to less fuel production, tighter supplies, and rising costs for American families, farmers, and truckers.”

The U.S. has never outright banned diesel exports before, but it did ban crude oil exports between 1975 and 2015. When the ban was lifted, domestic oil production rose but did not drive up gasoline prices for U.S. consumers, according to a report by the Government Accountability Office.

Nevertheless, analysts expect the government to take some action on diesel, even if it’s not a complete export ban.

Angst over high fuel prices is leaving the public in a gloomy mood about their own finances and the broader economy, according to a University of Michigan consumer survey released Friday.

The university’s long-running index of consumer sentiment dipped to near historic lows in September after diesel prices surged at the end of the month.  And with midterm elections approaching in November, the president has political as well as economic reasons to alleviate high fuel prices, even if it’s only a short-term measure.

“An outright ban still seems unlikely,” Rats wrote. “However, a partial and/or time-limited export restriction appears possible.”

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Source: “AOL Money”